Guardrail TradingGuardrail Trading
Free Trading Tool

Risk of Ruin Calculator

Calculate the probability of blowing your account based on your trading edge. Understand your risk before you trade.

Your Trading Stats

Enter your trading statistics

55%
20%90%
1%
0.25%5%
20%
10%50%

Risk of Ruin

0.01%

Very Low Risk

at 20% drawdown

Expectancy

+0.65R

Profit Factor

2.44

Survive Losses

20

Kelly Suggests

16.3%

Risk Analysis

How risk of ruin changes with different risk per trade:

0.5%
0.0%
40 losses
1%
0.0%
20 losses
1.5%
0.3%
13 losses
2%
1.2%
10 losses
3%
5.3%
6 losses
5%
17.2%
4 losses

Recommendation

Based on 55% win rate and 2.0R avg winner

Suggested risk:
2.0%

Free account, no credit card

Understanding Risk of Ruin

Risk of Ruin (RoR) calculates the probability that you'll hit a specified drawdown level given your trading statistics. Even profitable strategies can blow up accounts if risk per trade is too high.

< 1% RoR: Excellent

Well-protected account

1-5% RoR: Acceptable

Reasonable for most traders

5-15% RoR: Moderate

Consider reducing risk

> 15% RoR: High Risk

Strongly consider adjusting

Key Factors

Win Rate

Higher win rates reduce RoR, but you can have low RoR with 40% win rate if your winners are big enough.

Risk per Trade

The most controllable factor. Reducing risk dramatically lowers RoR. Most pros use 0.5-1%.

Reward:Risk Ratio

Larger winners relative to losers provides a buffer against losing streaks.

Kelly Criterion

Mathematical formula for optimal bet sizing. We show half-Kelly (safer).

Get Personalized Risk Insights

Track your actual trades and get real-time risk analysis, alerts when you're overleveraged, and recommendations based on your true performance.